主讲嘉宾 (Guest Speaker): Avery Goldstein?
???????David M. Knott Professor of Global Politics and International Relations in the Political Science Department, Director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China, and Associate Director of the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania.???
主持人 (Moderator): 白永辉教授 (Jean-Marc F. Blanchard),
?????? 云顶国际院长助理和教授; 跨国公司研究中心执行主任 (Shanghai Jiaotong University, School of International and Public Affairs Assistant Dean and Professor; Executive Director, Center for the Study of Multinational Corporations)
时 间 (time)：2013年05月29日（10:30 to 12:00, May 29th, Wednesday/周三)上午10点30分至12点钟
地 点 (location)：新建楼3005 (大会议室) Room 3005??
?????? AVERY GOLDSTEIN’s research focuses on international relations, security studies, and Chinese politics. He is the author of Rising to the Challenge: China’s Grand Strategy and International Security (Stanford University Press, 2005), Deterrence and Security in the 21st Century: China, Britain, France and the Enduring Legacy of the Nuclear Revolution (Stanford University Press, 2000), and From Bandwagon to Balance of Power Politics: Structural Constraints and Politics in China, 1949-1978 (Stanford University Press, 1991).? Among his other publications are articles in the journals International Security, International Organization, Journal of Strategic Studies, Security Studies, China Quarterly, Asian Survey, Comparative Politics, Orbis, and Polity as well as chapters in a variety of edited volumes. Goldstein is also a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia.
?????? Since the mid-1990s, much has been written about the potentially disruptive impact of China if it emerges as a peer competitor challenging the United States. Not enough attention has been paid, however, to a more immediate danger—that the United States (US) and a weaker China will find themselves locked in a crisis that could escalate to open military conflict.? The long-term prospect for a new great power rivalry ultimately rests on uncertain forecasts about big shifts in national capabilities and debatable claims about the motivations of the two countries. By contrast, the danger of crisis instability involving these two nuclear-armed states is a tangible near-term concern.? An analysis that examines the current state of US-China relations and compares it with key aspects of US-Soviet relations during the Cold War, indicates that a serious Sino-American crisis may be more likely and more dangerous than expected. The capabilities each side possesses, and specific features of the most likely scenarios for US-China crises, suggest reasons to worry that escalation pressures will exist and that they will be highest early in a crisis, compressing the time frame for diplomacy to avert military conflict.?